It's hard to say. Bill's bid was definitely designed to force Jones to call him - that much is certainly true. What I can't say for certain is what he SHOULD have done. The poster assumes that Jones could really have called Will before Bill bid. Maybe he could have, but in the version of the game I am familiar with (and the version I suspect they are supposed to be playing, since it's the tie-in version you can actually buy, and allows the 5 fours->6 threes bid), he could not have - in that version, you can only call when it is your turn, so Jones could have done nothing at that point.
If this is correct, Bill's options were to call Will (not a good idea, unless I am missing something), bid 9 fives, or bid something higher. If it had been me there, I would have bid 9 fives - bidding higher does nothing except make it more likely for Jones to call. If Bill had bid 9 fives, it's still not too likely that Jones will lose - he would have to bid 10 fives, and have Will call him. Will I imagine would call that, but I doubt Jones would bid 10 fives, given that Bill wasn't bidding fives early.
I should note that if Jones WAS allowed to call Will's bid out of turn, and if he was really supposed to be trying to do that when Bill bid, Jones was playing very badly. Given that Jones has 4 fives, the expected total number of fives on the table is 7 1/3. 8 is higher than that, but just a bit - it is NOT a very safe call (and in fact would have failed). No one I know would have called 8 fives in that situation.
Of course, Jones should have called Bill's bid of 6 threes if he were playing sensibly (since he has none, the expected number is 3 1/3). So maybe only Will can play the game well.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2006-07-17 03:21 am (UTC)If this is correct, Bill's options were to call Will (not a good idea, unless I am missing something), bid 9 fives, or bid something higher. If it had been me there, I would have bid 9 fives - bidding higher does nothing except make it more likely for Jones to call. If Bill had bid 9 fives, it's still not too likely that Jones will lose - he would have to bid 10 fives, and have Will call him. Will I imagine would call that, but I doubt Jones would bid 10 fives, given that Bill wasn't bidding fives early.
I should note that if Jones WAS allowed to call Will's bid out of turn, and if he was really supposed to be trying to do that when Bill bid, Jones was playing very badly. Given that Jones has 4 fives, the expected total number of fives on the table is 7 1/3. 8 is higher than that, but just a bit - it is NOT a very safe call (and in fact would have failed). No one I know would have called 8 fives in that situation.
Of course, Jones should have called Bill's bid of 6 threes if he were playing sensibly (since he has none, the expected number is 3 1/3). So maybe only Will can play the game well.